Grid, the digital news organization, takes on the difficult task of forecasting about China in 2023. The five big questions and issues they have posed based on input from several experts are: How will China manage its way out of zero-covid? Will China’s economy recover? Will Xi Jinping’s hold on power weaken? Will protesters take to the streets again? Will China make progress on addressing climate change?
On the issue of Xi’s hold on power, the consensus appears to be that “Xi may suffer reputational damage in the eyes of the public, but..that even a botched pivot away from zero-covid…may not lead to immediate political consequences for him.” On whether protesters will take to the streets again, the article quotes Victor Shih, an associate professor of political economy at the University of California, San Diego “now that the protesters know sympathizers are out there, they’re going to be much more willing. Even the people who are being detained right now [will] get let go at some point. They’re going to do it again when the next crisis emerges. I think we will see more frequent protests, with political demands, across cities, which is something that we haven’t seen since 1989.”